Nassim Taleb's concept of the black swan defines (1) rare, (2) unpredictable and (3) highly impactful events. It is black swans that dictate the course of humanity: the crash of 1929, Hitler's insurgency, discovery of antibiotics, iPhone, internet, September 11. None of these rare events could be predicted, prevented or planned. The more unpredictable, the more impactful.
In science, the logic of the black swan makes scientists aware of the role of serendipity and chance for great discoveries. True scientists rely less on plausible theories, focus on experimentation, and recognise unusual results when they arise. They respect the black swan.
In the interpretation of social or clinical history, the lack of recognition of the concept of the black swan causes us to interpret events based on fallacious causal hypotheses, created by the phenomenon of "retrospective predictability": we tell the story backwards, inventing a meaning for the fact.
On the other hand, our mental elaboration must realize when the event is not a black swan. Thus, the differentiation between white and black swans must be at the heart of society's scientific literacy.
Three years ago, the worst environmental disaster in Brazil took place. A dam belonging to mining company Vale collapsed, killing 19 people and destroying the city of Mariana.
At that time, I thought: was it a black swan? Although analysts blamed Vale, I wondered if the impression that such a catastrophe was preventable would be a narrative fallacy. That was a rare and highly impactful event. As no one predicted, it could be an unpredictable event. The three criteria of the black swan would be present.
Last week another such event took place in the same state of Minas Gerais, caused by a collapsed dam from the same company. It destroyed the region of Brumadinho and is supposed to have killed hundreds.
Brumadinho unraveled the dilemma: the collapse of the Vale dams are not black swans. When the same event occurs in a short period, it is no longer rare and unpredictable. Two casual events probably do not repeat themselves in such a short period of time. Scientifically, reproducibility reduces the likelihood of chance.
The perception that this was not by chance implies the possibility of prevention from the identification of causes.
However, a concern arises ...
Since the event lost its unusual characteristic, its potential impact in preventable attitudes may have decreased. According to the logic of the black swan, impact is proportional to how unusual the event is. Brumadinho was no longer unpredictable. Thus, after the trauma passes and the news are naturally diluted, the likelihood of a government behavioural change towards preventable mode may be lower than after Mariana's unusual disaster.
We should be aware: Brumadinho is not a black swan!
